2025 Restaurant Industry Predictions: Insights from Technomic Ignite Company
Explore the latest forecasts and trends for the restaurant industry in 2025 based on data from Technomic Ignite Company. Discover what to expect in terms of chain sales, category performance, and key players' movements.
Photo by Andrik Langfield on Unsplash
Chipotle's Ascendancy in the Fast-Casual Space
Chipotle's remarkable performance in 2024 positions it as a formidable player in the industry. With consistent year-over-year sales growth and a strategic value proposition, Chipotle is set to surpass competitors like Burger King and Subway in the upcoming Top 500 report. The chain's accelerated unit growth and international expansion ambitions solidify its place among the industry's top contenders.
Photo by Andrik Langfield on Unsplash
Challenges for Full-Service Concepts
The full-service segment faces significant challenges in 2025, with mass closures affecting major players like Denny’s, Applebee’s, and more. Factors such as rising labor and operational costs, along with increased competition from fast-casual establishments, contribute to the contraction in the full-service chain restaurant count. This shift marks a notable change in the industry landscape.
Dominance of Chicken Chains
The chicken category continues to drive industry growth, appealing to younger consumers and offering a variety of choices. Established brands like Chick-fil-A and Popeyes are joined by emerging players like Raising Cane’s and Wingstop, all experiencing double-digit sales growth. The forecast indicates a sixth consecutive year of substantial sales increase for chicken chains, showcasing the category's enduring popularity.
Struggles in the Burger Category
Contrary to the chicken segment, burger chain sales are expected to show sluggish growth in 2025. Industry giants like McDonald’s and Wendy’s are facing challenges with low single-digit sales increases. With an overall sluggish performance compared to previous years, the burger category is encountering obstacles that may impact its standing in the industry.
Industry Growth Projections
Despite challenges in specific segments, the overall industry is projected to experience a 4.2% increase in chain sales in 2025. While this growth seems promising, factors like inflation may impact the real value of this growth. Technomic Ignite's forecast provides a comprehensive overview of the industry's trajectory for the upcoming year.